Global Trends of Economy & Population Across Ages-1

* This is a multiple part series of articles in which we will discuss Trends of Global GDP & Population.
* Data used: Maddison Database from Groningen Growth and Development Center. Maddison Database is the most accepted database used by economic historians for understand economic history of the past.
* References:
* I will add more references with time.

Let us start with two following images:

Global GDP trends across ages.

Global GDP trends across ages: 1-2001 AD.

Global Population Trends 1-2001 AD

Global Population Trends 1-2001 AD

These two images are graphical representation of following tables respectively:

Table-1 Global GDP Trend 1-2001 AD

Population Table 1-2001 AD

Population Table 1-2001 AD

Table-2, Global Population Trend 1-2001 AD

Population Trend 1-2001 AD

Population Trend 1-2001 AD

What do these two figures suggest? Some inferences can be easily made:
1. India was not a poor country till very recently that is 1700 AD and it declined steeply after that making India homeland to largest number of poor and hungry people.
2. China: another superpower of all times also had good economy till very recently that is somewhat near to 1820 AD after which it started declining.
3. Western Europe started as a minor economic power and remained so for a long period for a long time. It slowly caught up with Asian superpowers after enlightenment in Europe but the pace of growth was very low. Growth after 1820 was phenomenal and within 50 years, it emerged as the absolute superpower.
4. US (+Canada) is a late entrant in the world economic kabaddi and its growth was enormous between 1820-1913 which continued till 1950. After that, it started declining but it still contributes to a quarter of world economy.

Now let us do some more analysis. Let us observe Economy/Population ratio over 1-2001 AD for all nations/group of nations. Simple arithmetic gives following graph & table (with only upto 2 places of decimal).

GDP share-Population share ratio

GDP share-Population share ratio

Table-3, Global share in GDP Vs Global Share in Population

Table for GDP share-Population share

Table for GDP share-Population share

From this graph & table, we can make following inferences:
1. For a large part of human civilization, share in global population and share in global GDP are almost proportional
2. Western Europe, Japan & US+ are nations/group of nations which have higher ratio
3. Western Europe started deviation from the normal ratio (of nearly 1) somewhere after 1300. This needs closer examination from more historical data.
4. US+ started deviation from the traditional ratio 1 somewhere after 1700 AD and this process got a lot of momentum after 1820.
5. after 1700, ration of India and China started felling below 1 at a steep rate and fell to the minimum at around 1970s after they started catching up with the rest of the world. Eatsren Europe, USSR and other parts of Asia saw positive deviation from 1 during this period but they are felling down to become comparable to India & China.
6. This part of research requires a more sophisticated data with greater details to make any historical account.

I will discuss more in details, pl wait for the next post.

  1. No trackbacks yet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: